The economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continues, even as states start to reopen restaurants, retail stores, and other businesses. The crisis brought an end to the bull market that started in 2009 and threatens to usher in a recession.1
 
What does the future hold for the stock market and the economy? When will the economy recover? And how will this crisis impact your retirement and your financial future?
 
It’s impossible to definitively answer those questions. In many ways, this event is unprecedented. We don’t know how long the virus will present a threat, so it’s impossible to predict how or when the economy may recover.
 
However, it is possible to make adjustments to your strategy to minimize risk and take advantage of potential opportunities. It’s also helpful to keep in mind the long-term nature of the economy and the financial markets. Nothing lasts forever, including recessions and bear markets. 

The financial markets have been a rollercoaster since the onset of the pandemic. On February 19, the S&P 500 closed at 3386. On March 23, it closed at 2237, a drop of 33.93%. Since that time, the market S&P has climbed to 2863 as of May 15.2
 
It’s important to remember that the stock market isn’t the same as the economy. A drop in the stock market doesn’t necessarily signal a recession, just like a rise doesn’t necessarily spell an economic recovery.
 
It’s also helpful to remember that bear markets are a natural part of investing. They aren’t always caused by global pandemics, but they do happen. There have been 16 bear markets since 1926. On average, they last 22 months and are followed by a 47% gain in the year following the market’s lowpoint.3 We can’t predict when the market will hit its low point, or if it already has, but if history is any guide, the market will recover at some point. 

While the stock market has bounced back somewhat since its March decline, the overall economic news continues to be negative. More than 36 million people have filed for unemployment since late March. In 11 states, more than a quarter of the workforce is unemployed.4
 
In the first quarter, the economy contracted for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. GDP declined by an annualized rate of 4.8%. That’s not as steep as the GDP decline of 8.4% annualized decline in 2008. However, it’s possible the economy could face a greater decline in the second quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of GDP, fell by an annualized rate of 7.6% in the first quarter. That’s the steepest drop for that metric since 1980.5
 
While states may be starting the reopen process, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the crisis and the economy’s future. The good news is you can take action to minimize risk. Contact us today at Bayou City Financial Advisors, LLC. We can help you analyze your goals and needs and implement a strategy. Let’s connect today and start the conversation.
 
1https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/investing/bear-market-stocks-recession/index.html
2https://www.google.com/search?safe=off&tbm=fin&sxsrf=ALeKk01UjyvpIcf62vDAgyulZ3dZuL1GWg:1589832165005&q=INDEXSP:+.INX&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRowi3w8sc9YSntSWtOXmNU5eIKzsgvd80rySypFBLnYoOyeKW4uTj1c_UNDM0qi4t5FrHyevq5uEYEB1gp6Hn6RQAAItD1MEkAAAA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikycWrmr7pAhWWU80KHfhUBrcQlq4CMAB6BAgBEAE&biw=1536&bih=754&dpr=1.25#scso=_JerCXv0o9o70_A-NwLLYBg1:0
3https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/market-and-economic-insights/bear-markets-the-business-cycle-explained
4https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/business/economy/coronavirus-unemployment-claims.html
5https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/29/847468328/tip-of-the-iceberg-economy-likely-shrank-but-worst-to-come
 
 
Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency. 20093 - 2020/5/19

On March 27, the government passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, otherwise known as the CARES Act. The Act had a wide range of provisions to provide Americans and small businesses with economic support during the coronavirus pandemic. The bill provided stimulus payments, enhanced unemployment, and various forms of business loans.
 
One provision that flew under the radar was the ability for qualified individuals to take distributions from their 401(k) plans and IRAs without paying early distributions penalties. Normally, you face a 10% early distribution penalty if you take a withdrawal from these accounts before age 59 ½.1
 
However, under the CARES Act you can take up to $100,000 as a penalty-free distribution from your qualified accounts, assuming you are a qualified individual.2 Are you qualified? And even if you can take a distribution, is it wise to do so?

Under the CARES Act, you can take up to $100,000 in qualified plan distributions if you are a qualified individual. Who is qualified? Anyone who meets the following criteria:
 

• You are diagnosed with the virus SARS-CoV-2 or with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by a test approved by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention;

• Your spouse or dependent is diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 or with COVID-19 by a test approved by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention;

• You experience adverse financial consequences as a result of being quarantined, being furloughed or laid off, or having work hours reduced due to SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19;

• You experience adverse financial consequences as a result of being unable to work due to lack of child care due to SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19; or

• You experience adverse financial consequences as a result of closing or reducing hours of a business that you own or operate due to SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19.2

 
If you meet any of these criteria and you decide to take a distribution, you won’t have to pay the 10% early distribution penalty, even if you are under age 59 ½. However, you will still have to pay income taxes on the distribution. You can spread the taxes out over a three-year period, but you still have to pay them.2

A CARES Act distribution may be the right strategy if you are in a financial crisis and have limited avenues available for relief. However, just because the distribution is “penalty-free” doesn’t mean it comes without consequences.

In addition to paying taxes on the distribution, you’ll also forego any future growth on the assets you withdraw. Tax-deferred growth is one of the biggest advantages of a qualified account. However, if you pull out funds, you lose all future tax-deferred growth on that amount. That could lead to a substantial reduction in your future assets at retirement.

Instead of dipping into your 401(k) or IRA, consider what other options you may have available. For instance, perhaps you could tighten your budget. Maybe you could refinance mortgages or other loans, or even renegotiate new payment terms. You may even consider picking up additional work until the crisis passes. It may be tempting to take an IRA distribution, but you’re only taking money from your future self.

Let’s talk about strategies to help you get through this period. Contact us today Bayou City Financial Advisors, LLC. We can help you analyze your needs and develop a plan. Let’s connect soon and start the conversation.
 
1https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/what-if-i-withdraw-money-from-my-ira
2https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/coronavirus-related-relief-for-retirement-plans-and-iras-questions-and-answers
 
 
Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency. 20100 - 2020/5/20